What year will Electric cars Exceed Gasoline Cars on the streets?

Question

The Auto industry is investing heavily in Electric cars and alternative Fuel. What is the expectations from the segment growth? and is it related to the price of Gas as to when this will happen?

Answer 1

Economics provides the best way to get an answer to this question. On average, gasoline prices increase about 25 cents per year. It fluctuates a lot, of course - higher in the summer, lower in the winter - but keeps going up and up.

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So at what point would you begin to look at electric cars - $5 per gallon? $10 per gallon? $15?

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$6 per gallon will happen in about 5 more years (just a guess - there could be an oil crash causing prices to rise even faster.) $10 per gallon should happen within 20 years.

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In the meantime, electric cars keep improving. Nissan has demonstrated 10 minute recharging. Tesla has demonstrated a 300-mile driving range. Mitsubishi has lower-cost batteries (their electric car is cheapest at just $21,000.)

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In 5 more years, all these electric car improvements will be converging. Within 10 years, all electric cars should have longer ranges, cheaper batteries, and 10-minute recharging.

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So my prediction is that people finally are taking electric cars seriously in about 5 years. Electric cars will be very serious competitors (that is, all the technical and price problems solved) in about 10 years. And they might reach 50% market penetration in 20 years, with gasoline at $10 per gallon. But no matter how expensive gasoline gets, there will still be lots of people who will refuse to drive electric cars.

Answer 2

The number of electric cars on the streets will exceed the number of gasoline powered vehicles approximately five to ten years after the manufacturers begin selling comparably priced ones that have range and refueling time comparable to a gasoline powered vehicle.



Your best transition model is probably is the speed at which the digital camera replaced the film camera. Right now electric cars are like 1MP cameras. Good enough for some jobs and early adopters but not quite prime-time ready.



In theory electric cars are superior to internal combustion engines in every way, but there are remaining technical hurdles that are not completely resolved. The timetable for doing this is unknown.

Answer 3

1) gas prices will continue to be unstable with a long term continuous rise in price



2) electricity prices will continue to be stable



3) battery prices will continue to fall while the batteries get lighter and more enegy dense.



4) powered roadways may or may not be a factor depending on how good batteries get and how quickly.



The year electric cars are more common than gas cars is 2043

Answer 4

Wow, Mr. Rogue is optimistic............and full of crap.

The Chevy Volt has been on sale for nearly 2 years now and sold only some 8000 units.

The people are consumers, and they want what they want. You can't change that.

And what they don't want is to take the chance on some "green" product that doesn't produce what it claims.



Like the cleaning products of the 80's which were claimed to clean just as well ( a lie )

Today they tout electric lawn mowers, but I can attest to the fact that they are under powered, have a narrower cut path (meaning more trips up and down the lawn and time mowing)

And the great electric car (chevy volt) has been having problems with charging stations catching on fire.



When the 'green' industry stops ripping off the customer, then maybe the customer might buy thier products. Until then they will always hurt due to thier lacking credibility demonstrated in past history.



As far as "when"................what does it matter. it happens when it happens...........IF it ever happens.

Answer 5

Electric cars consume electricity. I think solar powered cars would be great